Is India Vision 2020 achievable? India is a land of vision and great philosophers, kings and scientists led a vision for India. India Vision 2020 was a paper formulated by Technology Information forecasting and assessment Council (TIFAC) under the leadership of Dr APJ Abdul Kalam and another 500 experts. The paper focuses on the development of core economic sector:- • Agriculture and food processing • Infrastructure • Education and Health • Information Technology and communication • Critical technologies and communication The paper provides an insight about the country development with focused approach, will and determination. However, with the present economic scenario, it is difficult to achieve the same. European economy is in turmoil. Greece, Spain, Portugal and other European countries are in a danger of deep recession. US industrial growth is also in the declining stage. These factors led to fall in investor confidence. Growth in emerging markets like India and china is also showing signs of slowdown. The India GDP rate for the last quarter of 2011-2012 at 5.3% is disappointing. The balance of payment of India increased from $9 bn in 1990-91 to whopping $105 bn in 2011. The major concern is fall in the FDI due to political uncertainties and global cues. Study by London Business School A recent study by London Business School pointed out 7 reasons why India is unlikely to be a superpower. The reasons stated are:- • Challenge of the naxalites • The insidious presence of the Hindutvawadis • The degradation of once liberal and upright centre • The economic disparity between rich and poor • Instability and policy incoherence caused by multi-party coalition governments • Irregular environmental regulations • Trivialization of the media Falling GDP and GDP per capita Current economic disparity is causing social unrest. The Gdp rate, which was on the high tone of 8 to 9 % for the last 3 to 4 years, fell suddenly to 6 to7 %. The Gdp per capita also fell side by side. Depreciating INR The Indian rupee depreciated against dollar sharply by 6.86 % and it was the worst performer amongst the Asian currencies. It had lost 12 percent of its value after it has touched 43.85 in July, 2011. Rupee depreciation led to increase in cost of borrowing to corporate sector and have a severe impact on import bill. Falling Credit Rating Let’s talk about giant financial institution and rating agencies of the world like Morgan Stanley, IMF, S&P etc. Here is the glimpse of the results of our country’s financial performance:- • IMF lowered the growth forecast of India to 6.9 % from earlier 7 %. • Standard and Poor‘s degraded the outlook to negative from stable. • Standard and chartered lowered its 2012-13 GDP growth outlook for India to 6.2 % from earlier 7.1 %. • Morgan and Stanley scaled down to 5.7 % from 6.3 % in this current fiscal year. Major rating agencies also lowered the rating of Indian banks and financial institutions. Can this crisis be resolved? This is a million dollar question and the answer is yes. The current situation does not seem favorable but Indian growth story is still intact than other developing economies. So, this is the perfect time for the government to take corrective actions and show their commitment for the nation’s development. Some of the suggestions are:- • Government should focus on infrastructure sector and make attractive bond offer. • Government may consider reducing temporary imports. • Government should make political consensus healthy for the investment. • The government can make attractive investments and invite long term funds in retail sector for those states that are willing to open their gates. Effective policies and strong measures will undoubtedly go a long way in reviving the economy and directing it towards progress. With correct policy decisions, India can still achieve its vision of 2020.

Steel Secto,An overview

Steel Sector in India Indian iron and steel industry is nearly a century old with TISCO (Tata Iron and Steel Company) being the first integrated steel plant to be set up in Jamshedpur in 1907. Steel industry is the first core sector in India which is exempted from the Licensing Raj (1990-91). Since after economic liberalization in India, Steel sector grew by leaps and bounds because of development in Asian economies and perennial demand of steel from construction sector, automobile sector, aviation sector and other industrial sector. The new industrial policy of the GOI opened this sector for FDI and private investment as government exempted it from the list of industries reserved for public investment only. With the government backup, the existing units are modernizing and several green field projects are coming up in India at various locations. The steel sector has seen some the largest mergers and acquisitions which includes Tata-Corus, Arcelor- Mittal. Consumption:- Indian steel consumption i.e. at 14% is higher than world average of 6% in the last 15 years. Production and Consumption pattern in india in total finished market The steel consumption growth in the last 5 years was in the range of 9 to 13%. The per capita steel consumption is 53 kg in 2010 as compared to 35 kg in 2005. Steel Consumption intensity per capita (India) In India, the per capita crude steel consumption has increased from the last decade. It is also aligning with the per capita Gdp growth rate. With annual CAGR of 10% till 2013, the prospect seems fruitful for investing in steel sector. GDP Growth rate:- With the RBI strict policy rates and Global slowdown, inflation GDP got hit as it is now around 6.4 % to 6.7%. It is projected to grow by 7 to 8 % in the coming months. Industry Structure:- Indian iron and steel industry can be divided into two main sectors i.e. Public and Private sector. Public Sector industry includes SAIL and Vijag steel. Private sector industry includes Tata Steel, Jindal Steel, and Essar Steel. Further, based on the routes of production, the Indian steel can be divided into two types. These are integrated produces and Secondary Producers. Integrated Producers: - These are those producers who convert iron ore into steel. The three major players are SAIL, TATA Steel and RINL. Secondary Producers: - These are those producers who convert scrap and sponge iron to iron by melting. The major players are Essar Steel, Ispat Industries and Lloyd’s steel. Top 10 steel producers in the world:- Rank 2001 2010 1 Arcelor Arcelor Mittal 2 Posco Baosteel 3 Nippon Steel Posco 4 Ispat International Nippon Steel 5 Shangai Baosteel JFE 6 Corus Jiangsu Shagang 7 ThyssenKrupp Tata Steel 8 Riva U.S Steel 9 NKK An steel 10 Kawasaki Gerdau Source: - World Steel Association Production of steel:- The growth of steel was mainly comprised of expansion from 47.99 million tons per annum to 75.463 million tons per annum in 2010-2011. India is the fourth largest crude steel producer in the world. India is the largest producer of sponge iron in the world with the coal based route. After the delicensing and decontrolling in 1991 and 1992 respectively, Indian steel industry grew significantly. The pig iron production grew from 4.93 MT in 2006-07 to 5.54 in 2010-11. The sponge iron grew by 18.34 in 2006-07 to 26.71 MT in 2010-11. The total finished steel grew by 52.53 MT to 66.01 in 2010-11. Export and Import of steel An important point to be noticed regarding steel sector is that iron and steel are freely importable and freely exportable. Advance Licensing policies effectively helped the sector in free export and import. From the export and import data across the year, it can be seen that the India export import deficit is widening as the current consumption is outpacing the current production. Regulatory environment The central goal of steel industry is the creation of 110 MT of capacity and 100 MT of production by 2019-20 implying an average growth of nearly 7 percent a year. With this goal in mind, Indian ministry of steel came out with National Steel Policy, 2005. The national steel policy incorporates the creation of additional capacity, expansion of existing plants, removal of procedural-policy bottlenecks that affect the availability of production inputs, huge emphasis on research and development. The policy focuses on domestic sector. With the implementation of national steel policy, government allowed private owned and foreign investment in this sector. Government also improved intellectual property laws, deregulated pricing and distribution of steels. Government significantly reduced the custom duty payable on inputs to steel production. Global Outlook and Forays With the slowdown in global economy, Euro crisis, Slow down in US Economy, slow GDP growth of India and China, the outlook for 2012 remains cautious. Despite a good start in 2011, the global economy entered into vicious cycle of inflation and recession in the 2nd half of the year. However, with the revival of growth in India and china in the first few months of 2012, one can keep his figure crossed. .Steel demand will depend majorly on the growth aspect of BRICS Nations. According to World steel Association, in 2012, global steel consumption is estimated to increase at approximately 5.0% to reach 1.4 billion tones, after increasing at around 6.0 % in 2011. ------

Unprecedented Move

Coal India limited ,A Maha Navratna Company, is given a presidential order to supply coal to power companies. Earlier, the company is given order by PMO office for the same. Buy, finally ,after sitting with indias top industrialists like Tata,Birla,ambanis , the government has decided that Cil will supply 80% of Coal from April. At, This is juncture ,it is necessary as the power companies are having coal shortage supply. It will help in solving the coal crisis. However, if one look from the company aspect, it is really a shame and loss of dignity that company do not enjoy its freedom -ship in the corporate world. In,todays world, it is highly appreciated that the company is independent in taling decisions, It may affect the investors also. The company has not come out with its annual financial report.

tragic india road development rereports

today, i read an article ie published in the business standard editorial page. It is about BRT(Bus rapid transit)system in india ie recently being launched in delhi under the leadership of Dr Dinesh Mohan. The overall project had made with lot of pot holes. BRt system is successfully launched in foreign countries mainly european countries. why we do not understand that it will help our own country infrastructure development. In gujrat ,it is successfully launched. Dr Mohan told that he studied the transport details of Usa,Canada,China,india. india is not in their league. We lacked from them in every aspect. Take the case of china, our neighbour, in 3 years, on road and rail transport development, they had published 1600 research papers but we ,only 17. we are having our own central railway research team,SCRA, iit,iisc ,but only 17. shame on us. how we can compete with china. They employ more than thousand researchers,analyst and engineeres for their railway progress review ,but we are in no way getting closer to them.

government borrowings

How government borrowings affect aam aadmi. For the development project and subsidies , government need money.For money,governmnet go for borrowings. The government will incrase the tax and also the base. More taxes led to less liquid money in the pocket of aam aadmi. Less money will affect their spending pattern. people will start spending less . This will lead to less consumption and less production also. It may cause slump in growth. Government fiscal policy of increasing the tax slab from 1,80,000 to 2,00,000 will however,help the indian people to have more money with them. Government also told to decrease the fiscal deficit from 5.9 % to 5.1 %. that means,less subsidy this year and more taxes .It can be seen that service tax has been raised from 10 % to 12%. the government is also considering including transfer pricing in the corporate sector. Regarding transfer pricing structure, please wait for my nest blog which i will publish soon.

financial trends in india post budget

current financial trends in india is highly volatile. Post budget 2013, the Indian service tax structure has been raised from 10 % to 12%. The budget focuses on transfer pricing and tax on mergers and acquitisions.However, the 23rd march,goldman sachs report shows some signs of recovery for indian inc and the share market will revert in the 3rd quarter. the Global market is recovering .US is recovering and european market is also recovering from greece debacle.The current indian scenario is showing signs of recovery. After 3 weeks of stocks showing downturn, the infosys and tcs showed some signs of recovery in terms of 4 to 5% . The Indian central bank also given signal of policy cuts in the recent monetary review. The government recent rajeev gandhi invetsment plans will add millions of dollar to the investors. The stable government in UP also helped the india to come up with its current debacle. Wall street is bouncing back. the overall economic view is somewhat comeing out of its nightmare .

"Occupy Movement"

lets talk about the best names that come in the mind of any finance guys: lehman brothers, morgan stanley, j p morgan chase , federal banks etc..why i told this because all these financial behemoths belong to United States. But, if one looks now at US,an important term come which recently spread like a wild fire in the country. " The occupy movement" . people are frustrated about their financial security ,for which they call 99% insecure. Unemployment,collapsed promisses of obama government,financial insecurity paves the way towards yet another financial crisis like of 2008. Occupy Movement spred like a wild fire.

greek debt crisis.. basically how it happened, here comes the story behind by mr thinker.....

Before starting the Greek story, lets us unwind the series of events in Europe :-
1. adoption of euro as a currency by greece. The European union is controlled by european cental bank.The countries enjoy debt at lower interest rate than what is prevailing in the market.
2. reckless spending by greece government , huge amount of loans and government spending on the development causes havoc in the market. the debt to GDP ratio ,since 1993 is above 100 %.
3. Involvement of goldman sanchs in greece financial market. Goldman sachs introduced complex swapping of different derivatives in various markets.
4.lack of faith in investors who want to invest in the greece market.

Chain of events............

Greece Debt Crisis started majorly after October 2009 when the new socialist government, led by Prime Minister George Papandreou, revised the estimate of the government budget deficit for 2009, nearly doubling the existing estimate of 6.7% of GDP to 12.7% of GDP. This seriously questioned the ability of Greece to repay its debt. the status of "JUNK" by three rating agencies(moody's,S&P,Fitch) also added fuel to fire.

Rescue plan:-

Since after the crisis, papandreou govt introduced many norms and reforms in the government arena. but,these steps does not bring confidence in the investors.
The European union came out with the bail out plan of more than 100 billion euros for the Greece. They also vowed to take tough financial regulations against Greece and piigs countries.
America is also taking keen interest in the Greek crisis as European union is its largest trading partner. imbalance in euro currency may lead to trade deficit to USA.

the business of credit rating agencies

world financial market ,in today scenario, much depends upon world rating agencies. the three rating agencies which dominated the ratings (AAA,AA etc...) are moody's,standard and poor's (earlier called standard statistical)&fitch (owned by fimalac). After downgrading of us rating by S&P,eyebrows is being raised on the rating agencies. the credentials of their rating is being questioned. Today, the credit rating agencies are not following the buyer model which they did in early 70s.an important to note is that all the rating agencies belong to publisher copanies like mcgraw hill. the person behind the rating are not financial expert but common clerck who do daily routine work and withought analyzing the bond health in terms of ytm face value, premium to discounts, its risk level ,the rate the bonds. credit rating agencies are deeply entrenched into the finacial world market. they need proper government regulations prior to rating.A rating is essentially an opinion and is fraught with caveats galore: Standard & Poor’s warning at the end of every rating- “any user of the information contained herein should not rely on any credit rating or other opinion contained herein in making any investment decision” . do not you think it is an irony in itself.

lonliness

i am in my collage hostel alone. i am with myself. no body is here. i do not know how i can sense this time. but, this time is of different nature and i am sometime fully annoyed and some time fully enjoying. sound of cricket and sound of other insects ....
what is life. sometime i think it is not the daily hustle and bustle of the days . it is full of nature and full of energy. i am revitalizing myself . i want to write as i enjoy writing but i hardly get time. i am on a mission as i know i have to put in much effort. i have to give my best. life is not same always. form collage to tce to mba , i had made a long journey in this 3 years. lots of pm, lots of sites and lots of people . there is a fight everywhere. i must know myself and i must know myself.
life is a journey. i had achieved a lot and i have yet to achieve a lot.

125 .... technology and science ... connect the dots

How a technocrat, an industrialist, an automobile engineer connect himself from 125? Seems very awkward, right! What is this sentence all about? But, think! Ok, I will help you. Lets start with Coca cola, Mercedes Benz, Bike industry,Bosch systems. What is in their common. A very thin line . A number , multiple of 5, which , hardly anyone notice in this world.
Yes, I am talking about the 125 years of their technological innovation which led them to their current position. Take the case of any big technological players in the world, they all have either completed 125 years of their existence or their stupendous progress in this world.
Take the case of coca cola. The secret recipe that lists the ingredients of every bottle of Coca-Cola is a thing of legend. It is often described as one of the best kept secrets in the world, people around the world says that few people knew about the formula. Some told that it is kept deep within Coke ‘Atlanta, Georgia facility and armed guards keep vigil for 24 hour a day.
Of course, while for fun, all of these stories are too implausible to be true. There is no way a company can spent millions of dollars in keeping the formula secret. Importantly,Coke is made of different ingredients in different countries (example: in Germany, it uses cane sugar; in America, it uses corn syrup), there’s no such thing as a universal secret recipe.
In spite of all this, It is pretty impressive that after around 125 years, the secret recipe to Coca-Cola has finally been published by Ira Glass and his cohorts in the American Life, a (fantastic) weekly radio program on Public Radio International.
Hmm…after a hundred years of secrecy, you would expect the secret ingredients to be pretty esoteric, but in actuality, it’s all stuff you might have in your kitchen, including: alcohol, orange oil, lemon oil, nutmeg oil, and cinnamon. Seems quite interesting! With constant innovation and mixing of basic ingredients, coke not only sustain in the market but, became a market leader also.
Bosch Group, world leader in automotive segment...
They are celebrating their 125 years of fascinating existence as well as the 150th anniversary of its founder's birth in 2011. On Nov15, 1886, Robert Bosch established his "Workshop for Precision Mechanics and Electrical Engineering" in Stuttgart, Germany, thus, laying the foundation for what has become a leading global supplier of technology and services in automotive and aviation segment. According to Peter Marks, chairman, president and CEO, Robert Bosch LLC and member of the Bosch board of management, Bosch's 125 years of success is being driven by innovative solutions that enhance the quality of life, their dedication and commitment towards their customers. The Bosch Group comprises Robert Bosch GmbH and its more than 350 subsidiaries and regional companies in over 60 countries.
I think now coca cola and bosch , different players in different business arena have one thing in common,125. But, more players are in the pipe line.

Benz……..Yes I am talking about Mercedz benz…
It was 125 years ago from 2011; Carl Benz taught the world to play, as he filed an application in Berlin for a patent on his three-wheeled motor car.
However, the automobile never turned up and gone out of style. The interesting fact is that it was considered the official birthday of the automobile. Carl Benz once said “The love of inventing never dies”. Mercedes-Benz has, therefore, remained true to these guiding principles for all of those 125 years. The spirit of innovation is one of the key driving forces, and is firmly rooted in its corporate culture.
The point here is almost all the innovations in this world that has happened took almost a century to grow and flourish. Take Tata group, which is moving slowly towards its 125 years of existence. The group with 90 operating companies in seven business sectors having total revenue of $83.5 billion started with a steel mill in 1905 in Jamshedpur.
The important point to think is that for a company to become global in operations and diversification, they need to evolve from inside. It surely takes a huge amount of time and 125 suits it the best.

corruption and economic progress

India is a land of unity in diversity. Foreigners who visit the indian cities always think of growing india , developing infrastructure and financial stable markets. However ,the pic is not rosy on the other part. Still, poverty and unemployement looms large at the national scale. Take the case of china,since 1990, shanghai come out of the shackles of socialism and created manhatton of east for himself. They are having city and town planning museum. With growing intellectual capital, the infrastructure growth plays a crucial role. Some statistics about China and India, drawn mainly from the World Bank and the United Nations, are relevant here. Life expectancy at birth in China is 73.5 years; in India it is 64.4 years. The infant mortality rate is fifty per thousand in India, compared with just seventeen in China; the mortality rate for children under five is sixty-six per thousand for Indians and nineteen for the Chinese; and the maternal mortality rate is 230 per 100,000 live births in India and thirty-eight in China. The mean years of schooling in India were estimated to be 4.4 years, compared with 7.5 years in China. China’s adult literacy rate is 94 percent, compared with India’s 74 percent according to the preliminary tables of the 2011 census.
Still, we are only madly following the economic growth. Financial inclusion and sustainable growth is also needed for the overall economic growth of rhe nation.
The Slew of corruption tarnishes our global image . The whole nation is put on shame when our telecom minister, top executives from top mnc indian companies caught in the national 2g scam. This is really a bane for us.
We must take vow to lift our image .

indian nuclear deal . why it happen so fast?

indo us nuclear deal led india to start procuring nuclear fuel for its nuclear plant. however, the way it has been introduced in the parliament, then cash for vote scam ,wikileaks etc cause havoc for the upa gov. Apart from that , the nuclear reactors that has been imported to india are in the testing condition. these nuclear reactors are yet to be operated in the other european countries.It is only after fukushima nuclear disaster , indian nuclear bosses think about the tsunami or earthquake . why they had not considered these issues before. india is not having its central safety plan. we still depend upon foreign agencies for industrial safety audit. The drive to build clean nuclear energy even without proper bidding, proper allocation, untried instruments only create some sort of corruption in the indian energy sector. The nuclear regulatory authority ie atomic energy regulatory board also come under department of atomic energy . All these agencies must take into account the very benefits of indian citizen.

indian labors and their soceital condition

Indian labors comprises of mainly women and children. They need utmost attention as they have to be brought to the Indian mainstream. According to ilo, domestic work ranges from 4 % to 20 % of the current total work force in the developing world. This section of the society is undervalued and underpaid and overworked and unprotected. Indian govt is taking necessary steps to bring these people to the mainstream. Some steps of Indian govt like enforcement of minimum wages, no frills account by the banks etc are like a drop in the ocean.
The remedial steps taken by govt is not enough to bring these section of society to the mainstream.
govt must understand that in order to achieve developed status by 2020, govt must consider seriously about their dilapidated condition.

tips to decrease infaltion, can be done only by rbi .

rbi controls the indian economy by introducing the concept of repo rate and reverse repo rate. repo rate:- it is the rate at which banks borrow from rbi and reverse repo rate is the rate at which rbi lends money from banks. an increase in repo arte and reverse repo rate means an increase in interest rate which causes lower demand and which in turn causes lower inflation.
cash reserve ratio:- banks has to keep some money with rbi as per this policy. by increasing crr, banks has to keep more amount of money with rbi . this results in lowering of liquidity in the market. lowering of liquidity in the market means less money to borrow or to invest which means less demand which finally causes decrease of inflation.
higher growth means higher demand for credit which means higher inflation. rbi regulate the indian market by regulating the repo rate and reverse repo rate,crr and slr(slr does not mean self loading rifle but statuary liquidity ratio).
In order to sustain indian economy, monsoon this year play a vital role । Al nino effect which was prevelant during 2009 will not happen this year. Strong monsoon result in good production during kharif and rabi seasons which will bring huge agricultural prduction which again will boost the demand and finally the prices of food will go down leading to decrease in inflation.

Inclusive growth
India is a country having world second largest population. still, only 50 to 60 % population avail the facilities of banking . The excluded population includes underprivileged class, people under BPL etc. with the concept of financial inclusive growth, banks can provide services to them in terms of lending, financing loans, credit schemes etc. This helps in reducing the number of persons below poverty line. It also helps in locating the areas where developments is required. In developed economies, financial inclusion includes small population. whether in india, it includes large excluded populations. It helps in overall growth of the society. It helps in terms of social growth, political awareness and economic growth also. The initiatives taken by rbi regarding financial inclusion is reaally praiseworthy.

indian economy

Year 2008 and year 2009 are worst economic year of this decade. The economy is now under recovery. The India gdp and national income is growing at a fast pace. The central government planned a number of recovery package for the ailing Indian economy. The economic recession adversely affected the export oriented sectors like software . The main reason behind this downfall is the great recession in the us and some parts of the europe. The indian economy which is largly a home based economy, does not get affected by the world economic disaster. However, in the early months of 2010, the economy shows some signs of recovery. Recovery package issued by Barak Obama in helped the us economy to come back to its initial stage and this largely helps the world economy to come back to its back track. The industrial sector also shows some signs of recovery ,especially steel and metallic sectors. The software sector is still in tight hold because the us economy is still under the path of recovery. The agriculture sectors and the small scale industrial sector does not get affected from this recession as they are mainly based on the Indian market. by mid 2010, the indian economy is booming and one can say that it is now fully recoverd .

china presence in POK

The chinese incursion in pok is really a serious issue for the indian subcontinent. We talk about sovereignty and mutual cooperation. then why we are allowing . Does china is not acting like a back stabbers. does they are not acting like a permamnet problem to india. We must see that pakis are not our problem. the real problem is china. considering china growth, even usa is backing india in defence and social developments. China is making a blue water navy for its south china sea. It is more can be called as a china lake. India must take bold action in order to secure its strong economic growth and growing presence in the international arena. We must produce strong intellectuals and we must develop a strong social bond in order to prosper in this competitive world. The Chinese incursion can be seen as a threat to Indian sovereign and political status in the south east asia.

havoc in pakistan

pakistan is facing an unforseen flood in his 60 year of his existence. devastation caused by flood is unimaginable . Its magnitude is more than that of 2007 earth quake. indus river flows out of control after sudden rain outbursts.The whole country is affected. India has given 5 million $ aid to pakistan . Seeing the devastation, lot of countries came to rescue for the pakistan. According to locals, water rose at such a pace that people got very less time to come out of their house .It is really a matter of concern as one can say that their is a sudden change in the atmosphere of the surroundings. Outbursts of clouds in the Leh region, flood devastation in pakistan etc are the proven exaples of the current change in the climate. I am not saying that only pakistan is responsible for this act. But, we all are responsible for this climate change. reckless cutting of trees , heavy industrializtion etc are affecting the climate . we are acting as a silent killer of our mother earth.

It is really a shame for india that we are making ourselves ashamed in front of world. Just before 2 month before commonwealth games, lot of scandals are coming into the picture. lot of agencies are involved in this conundrum. It is really a shame for india. politicians and other contracting agencies are involved for this henious act. This is a matter of national pride that we are organizing